Market Wrap
Notes on markets & finance
Writing on the NEPSE and the Nepali financial world. New articles published regularly.
64 articles · newest October 27, 2026
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Three forecasters, three Nepals: the World Bank–IMF growth split, explained
Why selling a Rs 500 share at Rs 600 does not give you Rs 100 profit: NEPSE trading costs, explained
Does applying for 10,000 IPO units beat 10 units? Nepal's allotment lottery, explained
Why does a 15% bonus come with 0.78947% cash?
Him Parbat Hydropower's Rs 59.15 crore IPO opens October 28 — Dolakha locals and Nepalese abroad apply first
Start here
Three pieces that explain the market best
Nepal's economy is running at two speeds
NRB's Shrawan report shows record forex reserves of Rs 3.946 trillion while inflation hit an 18-month high of 5.96%. What the split means.
Nepal raised the share tax, then watched the revenue collapse 54%
Nepal's FY2083/84 budget raised NEPSE capital gains tax to 7.5%/10%; revenue collapsed 54.42% and the Cabinet cut rates to 3.5%/5%. Full breakdown.
One building in Thapathali shut down Nepal's entire stock market
On 21 September 2026, ransomware at Data Hub Pvt Ltd locked 72 of Nepal's 90 brokers out and closed NEPSE for a full day. How it happened.
All articles
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Economy
Capital spending is 20% of Nepal's budget — and last year it spent 47% of that
Nepal's Rs 2.12 trillion budget gives recurrent Rs 1.27 trillion and capital Rs 431 billion. Last year it spent 88% of the first, 47% of the second.
Economy
Three forecasters, three Nepals: the World Bank–IMF growth split, explained
The World Bank says 3.7%, the IMF says 3.0% and the ADB said 4.1% for Nepal. The 1.1-point spread is not a rounding error: it maps what the August floods broke, what reconstruction will count as growth, and why GDP misses what households earn.
Policy
SEBON's AML directive, 2083: market integrity becomes a compliance duty
SEBON's Directive on Prevention of Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorist Activities, 2083, in force since Ashwin 30, 2083 (October 16, 2026), turns market integrity into a documented compliance duty for securities-market reporting entities — not a verdict on any stock or firm.
Market
Why selling a Rs 500 share at Rs 600 does not give you Rs 100 profit: NEPSE trading costs, explained
Broker commission, SEBON fee, DP charge and CGT take Rs 922.28 from a Rs 10,000 price gain: buy 100 shares at Rs 500 and sell at Rs 600 and you keep Rs 9,077.72, not Rs 10,000. The full cost stack, with break-even at Rs 504.11.
Market
Does applying for 10,000 IPO units beat 10 units? Nepal's allotment lottery, explained
In an oversubscribed fixed-price IPO in Nepal, SEBON's rule gives every valid applicant 10 units first — then a lottery. Applying for 10,000 units buys no extra chance; it only blocks Rs 1,000,000 in your bank account instead of Rs 1,000.
Market
Why does a 15% bonus come with 0.78947% cash?
Nepal's odd bonus decimals explained: a 5% final withholding tax on bonus face value, grossed up as cash = bonus ÷ 19 — so a 15% bonus needs 0.78947% cash.
Market
Him Parbat Hydropower's Rs 59.15 crore IPO opens October 28 — Dolakha locals and Nepalese abroad apply first
Him Parbat Hydropower's Rs 59.15 crore IPO opens October 28: 16.9 lakh shares for Dolakha's project-affected locals, 4.225 lakh for Nepalese working abroad, at Rs 100 each. Dates, ward split, rating and the caveats — every figure verified.
Macroeconomics
Nepal's exports grew 62%. Almost half of them were imported first
NRB's October 15 report shows exports up 61.9% to Rs 76.59 billion, but Rs 36.04 billion of it is re-exported soybean oil. The trade deficit still widened 26%.
Education
When can you actually sell your bonus shares?
A bonus declaration is a promise, not a delivery. New shares become tradable only after NEPSE lists them — a wait that runs from weeks to months.
Education
A 10% dividend — but is your return really 10%?
A 10% dividend sounds like a 10% return — it isn't. The declared percentage sits on the Rs 100 face value; your real return is the dividend yield: Rs 10 per share divided by the price you paid, minus 5% tax.
Policy
Nepal's stock market is dominated by individual traders. SEBON wants the pension funds to change that
SEBON's draft Institutional Investor Policy 2083 would steer up to 30% of institutional portfolios into listed securities. What the proposal contains, and what stands in its way.
Education
You bought Rs 40,000 of shares — how much did the broker take?
The screen price is not what you pay. Three charges sit on every NEPSE trade — broker commission, the SEBON fee, and the DP charge — and on a Rs 40,000 buy they add Rs 150 before you own a single share.
Policy
The bill that was supposed to free Nepal's central bank is being rewritten to leash it
Parliament's Finance Committee approved NRB Act changes keeping government directives, cutting the governor's term to 3 years, and elevating policy support to an objective, reversing the bill's original purpose.
Education
Your IPO was allotted: how does it become cash?
IPO shares land in your DEMAT account, then nothing happens until you act. The four steps from allotment to cash in your bank: listing, TMS sell, EDIS, and T+2 settlement.
Macroeconomics
Nepal has $25.8 billion sitting in reserves. A new committee wants to put it to work
Nepal's forex reserves hit Rs 4.07 trillion, enough for 21 months of imports. A committee led by NRB's deputy governor is now writing the framework for a sovereign wealth fund.
Company Analysis
Api Power's record Rs 960.61 million profit is nearly half a paper gain, and every plant is a wasting asset. The market still pays Rs 345.
API at Rs 345 on Oct 16, 2026: 45x core EPS of Rs 7.63 vs hydro-peer median 67.16x. FY 2082/83's Rs 960.61M PAT hides a Rs 474.15M paper fair-value gain.
Policy
Nepal's central bank raised the wallet cap for the third Dashain running. Festival cash keeps winning anyway
NRB raised daily wallet deposits from 10 to 50 for Dashain and Tihar — the third yearly increase — yet still expects cash in circulation to jump 10 percent.
Macroeconomics
Rs 436 billion arrived from abroad in two months. Fewer workers sent it
NRB's October 15 report shows remittances up 23.9% to Rs 436.36 billion in two months, even as new foreign-employment approvals fell 13.2%. Why the split matters.
Macroeconomics
Inflation tripled in a year. Bank deposits pay less than half of it.
Nepal's inflation hit 6.34% in mid-September, more than triple last year's rate, while bank deposits pay 3.15%. What NRB's two-month report reveals.
Market
NEPSE closed the week at 2,634.17, up 42.36 points, but hydropower dominated the week's biggest moves
NEPSE closed the week at 2,634.17, up 42.36 points (+1.63%). Friday turnover was Rs 4.88 billion; CKHL led weekly gainers at +11.30%.
Disclosures
BHDC filed its dividend notice a day late. NEPSE stopped trading its shares.
On 14 October 2026 NEPSE suspended trading in Bindhyabasini Hydropower (BHDC) after the company uploaded its dividend and AGM decisions a day late.
Policy
SEBON wants every IPO company worth Rs 100 a share first. Hydropower says the test measures the wrong thing.
SEBON's draft IPO rules require net worth per share above Rs 100. IPPAN warns 60% of hydropower projects would be locked out, and the regulator says the number is not final.
Policy
NRB stopped guarding every dollar. Its record reserves are why.
On October 5, 2026, NRB doubled medical forex limits and quintupled aviation caps in its biggest dollar-rule overhaul in years. Record reserves made it possible.
Policy
SEBON made big sellers announce themselves 15 days early. Then it rewrote the rule in days.
SEBON's advance-notice rule lasted about a week before the board rewrote it: five trading days instead of fifteen, only for 15% sales instead of 5%.
Macroeconomics
Nepal's banks are drowning in cash. The central bank just cut rates anyway.
NRB's first quarterly monetary review cuts the policy rate to 4.25% and lifts overdraft and microfinance loan limits. An easing for an economy where credit demand, not supply, is the problem.
Markets
Four companies opened dividend season with 61.75 points of payouts. Nearly half is paper, not cash.
Nabil, NMB, Manjushree Finance and Kutheli Bukhari declared 61.75 points of dividend in 48 hours. Only 33.75 points will arrive as cash.
Company Analysis
SY Panel Nepal promised Rs 108.42 million in profit and delivered Rs 67.52 million. The market prices it at 259 times its earnings anyway.
SYPNL at Rs 1,334.10: 259x verified EPS (Rs 5.16) vs peer median 38.3x. Prospectus FY 2082/83 profit Rs 108.42M; delivered Rs 67.52M. Base target: Rs 232.
Macroeconomics
Nepal just posted the biggest external surplus in its history. It was paid for by departures.
The World Bank's October 2026 update shows Nepal's current account surplus doubled to a record 14% of GDP on remittances worth 35.8% of GDP. The domestic numbers tell a weaker story.
Market
NEPSE closed the week at 2,591.81, a 4.56-point gain that left the market's direction unresolved
NEPSE closed the week at 2,591.81, up 4.56 points. Friday turnover hit Rs 4.82 billion, with KBSH leading gainers and RLEL leading losers.
Macroeconomics
Gold is down 23% from its January peak. Kathmandu's tola price barely noticed
Gold has fallen 23% in dollars since January, but a tola in Kathmandu still costs Rs 294,800. The rupee, the import duty, and the quota explain the gap.
Market infrastructure
बुक क्लोजको बेला सेयर किन्दा लाभांश किन पाइँदैन?
बुक क्लोजको बीचमा सेयर किन्दा लाभांश नपाइने नियम: SADBL को असोज ८–२२ बुक क्लोज, T+2 सेटलमेन्ट, र लाभांश सुरक्षित गर्ने अन्तिम दिन।
Regulation
The government says NRNs will trade on NEPSE. It has made that promise before.
Amendments opening NEPSE's secondary market to NRNs go to Cabinet by mid-October 2026, per the 21-point reform plan. What is decided, and what is still a promise.
Markets
NRB raised forex limits two to five times in a single circular. Whether reserves can keep up is the open question
NRB Circular 2/2083-84: the USD 15,000 annual exchange facility doubles to USD 30,000, airline advance payments jump fivefold to USD 500,000, and IT and energy join the foreign-loan guarantee list.
Regulation
SEBON just made an 85% IPO legal. Its own regulation doesn't say who it's for
SEBON's 8th amendment to the Securities Registration and Issuance Regulation lets qualifying companies float up to 85% of issued capital at face value, with 1,000-share trading lots.
Policy
SEBON made big sellers announce themselves early. The market heard a sell signal
SEBON's 15-day advance-notice rule for major sellers was meant to protect investors. Monday's 20.48-point NEPSE fall shows the market reads the notices as warnings.
Markets
NEPSE really does fall before Dashain. This year it is the exception
In 16 of 21 years, NEPSE fell in the 20 sessions before Ghatasthapana. A new data study says the weakness lands weeks before the festival; 2026 is the exception.
Company Analysis
Swabalamban Laghubitta earned Rs 619.76 million and trades at Rs 695.00. The bad-loan meter refuses to fall.
Swabalamban Laghubitta (NEPSE: SWBBL) closed at Rs 695.00 on October 2, 2026, a 19.6x multiple on trailing EPS of Rs 35.41. Net profit rose from Rs 280.21 million to Rs 619.76
Markets
Balephi is building an investment company with shareholder money. The notice does not say what it will buy
Balephi Hydropower registered BHL Investment Limited (Rs 50 crore authorized, Rs 2.5 crore issued) and its board approved paying Rs 1 crore of a Rs 2 crore commitment as share
Policy
ERC opened Nepal's grid to private power traders. The Rs 4.13 lakh wheeling charge decides if anyone trades
ERC's open-access amendment lets private traders wheel power over NEA's grid: Rs 4.13 lakh/MW/month long-term, 57 paisa/kWh short-term. What it means for hydro investors.
Ratings
CARE moved KSBBL to BBB-. The upgrade was won on cheap deposits, not better lending
CARE Ratings Nepal upgraded Kamana Sewa Bikas Bank's issuer rating to CARE-NP BBB- from BB+: Tier I up 177 bps to 11.68%, CASA 53.79%, PAT Rs 909 Mn. Why it matters.
Macroeconomics
The August floods were supposed to empty Nepal's hotels. September brought 12.1% more tourists
Nepal received 88,248 international tourists in September 2026, up 12.1% from a year earlier, despite late-August floods that triggered mass booking cancellations.
Markets
NEA declared force majeure on the Dana-Kushma line. 189.6 MW is silent, and nobody has said who carries the loss
NEA's letter च.नं. 443 (September 28, 2026) declares force majeure under PPA clause 10.2 after a Kaligandaki flood damaged a Dana-Kushma 220 kV tower in Myagdi.
Banking
NIC Asia can now take Apple Pay. The open question is whose customers come through.
NIC Asia Bank's CyberSource merchants can now accept Apple Pay and Google Pay from Visa/Mastercard holders worldwide — a claimed first for Nepal. Whether it matters.
Macroeconomics
Nepal's banks are drowning in cash. The borrowers never came.
NRB will vacuum Rs 18 billion out of the banking system in its third deposit-collection operation in 17 days. Banks are flush; borrowers are scarce.
Policy
SEBON is defending the 15-day promoter sale rule. Even its own paper admits the window is long
SEBON's September 24, 2026 concept paper on the 15-day advance-notice rule for promoter share sales: how the rule works, why the board says Nepal needs it, and where the world does it in two days.
Insurance
SuryaJyoti Life is now a fund manager too. Where does policyholder money sit now?
SuryaJyoti Life's Alpha Plus fund: a Rs 50 crore, SEBON-registered vehicle managed by Alpha Plus Ventures, billed as Nepal's first insurer-run fund.
Macroeconomics
Nepal approved 328 foreign investments in two months. The cheques shrank 66%.
FDI commitments to Nepal fell 66.4% to Rs 11.12 billion in the first two months of FY 2026/27, while approvals rose to 328 projects. What the numbers show.
Markets
The Finance Ministry promised to revive the market. NEPSE closed the week 11.90 points lower
NEPSE fell 11.90 points to 2,587.25 on October 2, 2026, its fourth decline in five sessions, as turnover slipped to Rs 4.29 billion.
Markets
39.3 MW of hydropower went silent in the floods. The loan bills did not
Five hydropower companies filed flood-damage reports with NEPSE on Oct 1, 2026 under SEBON's order. Suryakunda: Rs. 75.16 lakh lost income vs Rs. 3.04 crore quarterly interest due.
Markets
NEPSE fell for three straight sessions. Nobody panicked.
NEPSE fell a third straight session on Sept 30, closing at 2,598.89. Each day’s loss was smaller than the last; turnover held near Rs 5 billion.
Markets
SEBON ordered NEPSE to name every flood-hit company. The list does not exist yet
SEBON’s Oct 1, 2026 circular orders NEPSE to identify flood-hit listed companies, publish a 13-point damage report each, and run surveillance.
Company Analysis
Nepal Bank earns Rs 30.63 a share and trades at Rs 294.70. The market still will not pay above book.
Nepal Bank (NEPSE: NBL) trades at 9.54x earnings and 1.02x book on Q4 FY 2082/83 filings — roughly half the banking-sector median.
Markets
Everyone in Parliament agreed NEPSE is broken. Nobody agreed whose fault it is.
House Finance Committee summons Finance Ministry, SEBON, NEPSE and investors over capital-market reform: three blunt diagnoses, 21-point revival plan.
Market infrastructure
NEPSE's index counts shares the public cannot trade. A second benchmark is planned.
Nepal's capital market plan proposes a new benchmark index weighing tradable shares, financial health and disclosure. Why the current index misleads.
Markets
NRB cut banks' listed-share holding period to 45 days. Whether the money follows is the open question
NRB Circular No. 3 (Ka, Kha, Ga) 2083/84: counter-cyclical buffer at 0% for FY 2083/84, listed-share holding floor cut from 6 months to 45 days.
Markets
SEBON split NEPSE's brokers into four grades. The hardest numbers are still missing
SEBON’s Securities Broker Strengthening Policy 2083 grades Nepal’s stockbrokers into four classes, with separate approvals for margin and intraday.
Company Analysis
Profits came roaring back at Himalayan Laghubitta. The bad-loan meter keeps climbing.
Himalayan Laghubitta (NEPSE: HLBSL) grew FY 2081/82 profit 49% to Rs 106.6 million, paid a 7% dividend, and trades at 5.6x book, while NPL crossed 10%.
Policy
Nepal's microfinance lenders made record profits. Their bad loans grew even faster.
NRB put four microfinance lenders under corrective action for breaching the 8% capital floor, as sector bad loans jumped 64% to Rs 50.82 billion.
Company Analysis
City Hotel halved its debt with a Rs 1.34 billion rights issue. The profits have not followed.
How City Hotel (NEPSE: CITY) halved its debt with an 80% rights issue, won a CARE-NP BB upgrade, and still lost Rs 173.09 million in FY 2082/83.
Markets
Nepal raised the share tax, then watched the revenue collapse 54%
Nepal's FY2083/84 budget raised NEPSE capital gains tax to 7.5%/10%; revenue collapsed 54.42% and the Cabinet cut rates to 3.5%/5%. Full breakdown.
Markets
SEBON wants day trading on NEPSE. Don't expect it next month
SEBON's September 24, 2026 concept paper on intraday trading: buy-first-sell-later to start, short selling on hold, no launch date. What it says.
Macroeconomics
Nepal's economy is running at two speeds
NRB's Shrawan report shows record forex reserves of Rs 3.946 trillion while inflation hit an 18-month high of 5.96%. What the split means.
Macroeconomics
ADB cut Nepal's growth forecast to 4.1%. The inflation number matters more
ADB cut Nepal's FY2026/27 growth forecast to 4.1% and raised inflation to 5.3% after devastating floods. Why the current 5.96% inflation matters more.
Markets
One building in Thapathali shut down Nepal's entire stock market
On 21 September 2026, ransomware at Data Hub Pvt Ltd locked 72 of Nepal's 90 brokers out and closed NEPSE for a full day. How it happened.
Markets
19 Trading Systems, 23 Years of NEPSE Data: Trend Beats Buy and Hold, Dip-Buying Loses Money
19 rule-based trading systems backtested on 5,333 NEPSE sessions (2003-2026): trend and momentum beat buy-and-hold; mean-reversion lost money.
Markets
Kalika Power's 7% bonus shares list on NEPSE: 653,765 units now tradable
KPCL listed 653,764.65 bonus shares on NEPSE Sept 29, 2026. 7% bonus + 0.3684% cash from 18th AGM. Per-shareholder math, official notice.